Communities across Somalia are bracing for heavy rains and potential flooding linked to a Super El Niño during the October to December Deyr season. The Somali Disaster Management Agency issued an emergency alert on 4 October 2026, warning communities in flood-prone areas to prepare. The country is entering the rainy season while many communities are still recovering from previous cycles of severe drought and localized flooding.
According to OCHA, 5 October 2026, an estimated 3.4 million people could be exposed to flood risks nationwide during this period. The highest risks are concentrated in riverine areas, including the Hiraan, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions, as the Jubba and Shabelle river basins are historically the most vulnerable to overflowing during El Niño events.
Humanitarian partners and government authorities, including the Somali Disaster Management Agency, OCHA, and UNICEF, are accelerating anticipatory action and preparedness measures. The Somali Disaster Management Agency has advised residents to identify evacuation routes, monitor water levels, and prepare emergency kits.
The impending flooding threatens to cause secondary displacement, destroy infrastructure, disrupt agricultural livelihoods, and elevate the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera. However, the exact volume and geographic distribution of the rainfall remain forecasts, and the actual number of people displaced will depend on river levels and the effectiveness of early warning evacuations.
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Written by the SHM editorial desk and approved by an SHM editor before publication.