Somali Humanitarian Magazine (SHM) has officially published its Anticipated Flood Displacement in Somalia: Humanitarian Risk, Displacement Scenario and Preparedness Report for October–December 2026.
The report presents SHM’s independent mathematical calculations and displacement scenario analysis to assess the potential humanitarian consequences of flooding during the Deyr rainy season. SHM’s scenarios estimate potential displacement ranging from 612,023 people under a lower-impact scenario to more than 1.09 million under a high-impact scenario. The report also highlights an estimated US$14.23 million preparedness funding gap, based on the reported funding requirement and financing status.
These figures are scenario-based planning estimates, not confirmed displacement figures or validated forecasts. The report explains its calculations, assumptions, and limitations while identifying practical measures to strengthen early warning, preparedness financing, civilian protection, and locally led humanitarian response.
SHM calls on Somali authorities, humanitarian organisations, donors, and local NGOs to turn risk analysis into timely action and protect vulnerable communities before flooding escalates.
Published by Somali Humanitarian Magazine (SHM) — Independent Humanitarian Reporting, Research, Analysis, and Advocacy for Somalia.*